Австралийский Доллар Форекс Январь 2010

Oil and Gold Rally

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 7th January (GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as commodities rallied and risk appetite remained strong. US data was slightly worse than expected with December Services ISM at vs. previously and ADP December National Employment at k vs. k forecast. FOMC minutes showed some members were concerned about withdrawing stimulus too quickly and that further expansion may be necessary if the economy falters. DJIA +1 points closing at , S&#;amp P +1 points closing at and NASDAQ -7 points closing at Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims forecast at k vs. k previously.

The Euro (EUR) dipped going into Europe on comments from ECB Stark that the EU would not bail out Greece. The Market quickly recovered however and as commodities pushed higher so did the Euro. EUR/GBP tested and EUR/JPY reclaimed Y Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing at Looking ahead, November Retail Sales forecast at % vs. % previously m/m.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very weak once again as the market bought crosses aggressively helping the USD/JPY to rally back above Y MoF Fujii will be replaced by Naoto Kan. Weak US data lead the USD/JPY rally to stall but the crosses led by the AUD/JPY remained buoyant.Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of and a high of before closing the day around in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) underperformed the rest of the market with Cable pivoting unable break higher. GBP/AUD was the worst hit breaking below support as the slide continues. December PMI Services was at vs. forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing the day at in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Rate Announcement forecast to remain at %.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rallied above on the back of the commodities rally. AUD/JPY also traded to highs as the rally picked up momentum. November Building Permits +% vs. 3% forecast. EUR/AUD is on track to test multi year support. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing the US session at Looking ahead, November Trade Balance forecast at mln vs. mln. November Retail Sales forecast at %.

Oil &#;amp Gold (XAU) broke higher as the uptrend resumed. Overall trading with a low of USD$ and high of USD$ before ending the New York session at USD$ an ounce. Broke and closed above the key $82 level. Crude Oil was up $ ending the New York session at $

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro –

Initial support at (Jan 4 low) followed by (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now located at (Jan 5 high) followed by (Dec 17 low)

Yen –

Initial support is located at (Jan 5 low) followed by (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 6 high) followed by (Dec 18 High).

Pound –

Initial support at (Dec 30 low) followed by (Oct 13 low). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 5 high) followed by (Jan 4 high).

Australian Dollar –

Initial support at (Jan 5 low) followed by the (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at ( of ) followed by (Dec 3 high).

Gold –

Initial support at (Jan 5 low) followed by (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 6 high) followed by (Dec 17 high).

Oil –

Initial support at 82 (Major level) followed by (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at (Big Figure) followed by 85 (Major level).

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DAILY DETAIL
Looking at the FX space, EUR/USD broke out of the recent range and went on to test the level. The pair is still hanging around there and with the current momentum we wouldn’t be surprised to see it push through in Asia today.  A close above the 50% retracement of the May to June fall at would be highly positive and suggest that despite a powerful trend, the bulls are still in control of this move.
It will be interesting to see Spanish GDP in European trade ( AEDT) with expectations of a % decline on the year. AUD/USD continued to drift higher and is just testing the region. We feel the pair might encounter some resistance in the to region, as it was a previous support zone for the pair. This could result in some near-term weakness for the pair. USD/JPY has remained range bound at around , with limited data flow out of Japan.

It has been a fairly quiet morning in Asia for FX pairs, with tight ranges being maintained. The Fed meeting tomorrow morning will be key for these FX pairs going forward.  As a result, later today it’ll be all about positioning ahead of the Fed. US data will also be in focus with Q4 GDP expected to print % annualised, while ADP private payrolls and personal consumption will also be in focus. We are keen to see if a strong ADP or GDP print will actually result in USD strength ahead of the upcoming Fed meeting.               

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MUFG Bank (Europe) N.V. takes no responsibility for the consequences of any errors and omissions which may occur in this report.

Stocks Stumble, Dollar Gains

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –21st January (GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) accelerated recent gains as US stocks came under heavy selling pressure and the Euro plunged to 20 week lows. Data was mixed with December Housing starts at K vs. k expected while Building Permits were at k vs. k forecast. DJIA points closing at , S&#;amp P points closing at and NASDAQ points closing at Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at k vs. k previously. Also released, Weekly Crude Oil Inventories forecast at m vs. m previously.

The Euro (EUR) broke through in early Asia and the rout continued in Europe with markets turning aggressively bearish on the single currency. Momentum to the downside is accelerating and the major level is on the radar. December German PPI % vs. % forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing at Looking ahead, January PMI services forecast at vs. previously. January PMI manufacturing forecast at vs.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very strong on the crosses as risk aversion spiked higher and EUR/JPY dragged down the rest of the market. USD/JPY remained buoyant however as the Dollar was very strong. AUD/JPY traded at 2 week lows as traders unwound more positions from the recent rally. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of and a high of before closing the day around in the New York session.

The Sterling (GBP) good economic data helped the GBP continue to outperform the rest of the risk trades. December Claimant Count dropped k vs. -3k forecast and the Unemployment Rate dropped to % vs. % forecast. EUR/GBP pounced on the Euro weakness to trade at fresh 5 month lows below Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing the day at in the New York session. Looking ahead, January CBI Orders forecast at vs.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) was hit hard in Asia as the Euro crumbled and rumors circulated that china was curbing lending by the nations banks. The slide continued in the US session as stock losses mounted and gold crashed. January Consumer Sentiment soared % m/m. Sentiment is still strong towards the AUD but markets will be looking for the dust to settle before reestablishing longs positions. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of and a high of before closing the US session at

Oil &#;amp Gold (XAU) crashed through support at $ to test $ Overall trading with a low of USD$ and high of USD$ before ending the New York session at USD$ an ounce. Crude Oil slumped nearly $2 a barrel on risk reduction. Crude Oil was up -$ ending the New York session at $

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro –

Initial support at (Aug 17 low) followed by (Jul 29 low). Initial resistance is now located at (Jan 20 high) followed by (Jan 19 high)

Yen –

Initial support is located at (Dec 21 low) followed by ( of ). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 19 high) followed by (Jan 15 high).

Pound –

Initial support at (Jan 15 low) followed by (Jan 13 low). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 19 high) followed by (Dec 7 high).

Australian Dollar –

Initial support at (Jan 18 low) followed by the ( of ). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 18 high) followed by (Jan 14 high).

Gold –

Initial support at (Jan 20 low) followed by ( of ). Initial resistance is now at (Jan 14 high) followed by (Jan 11 high).

Oil –

Initial support at (Intraday support) followed by (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at (Intraday Resistance) followed by (Intraday Resistance).